Who Ya Got?

The Oscars are the Sunday after next, and like everyone else, I'm predicting the outcome. Write it down people, this is how they'll go:

Best Picture:
What deserves to win? THE DEPARTED
What will win? THE DEPARTED (eat it, film aficionados/assholes)
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? THE FOUNTAIN

Best Director:
Who deserves to win? Marty, baby.
Who will win? Marty. I won't repeat how overdue he is.
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? Bryan Singer, SUPERMAN RETURNS (how he made this movie so good, will all the expectations and pressure, is beyond me.)

Best Actor:
Who deserves to win? Out of the nominees, Forest Whitaker, for THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND. Leo DiCaprio had the best year for any actor in Hollywood though, with a great turn in BLOOD DIAMOND and the best performance of the year in THE DEPARTED. I'm pretty much gay for Billy Costigan.
Who will win? Whitaker.
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? BORAT!

Best Actress:
Who deserves to win? Kate Winslet, LITTLE CHILDREN. Extraordinary movie. Vulnerable performance. I loved every minute when she was on screen.
Who will win? Helen Mirren, THE QUEEN, who is as much of a lock as anyone in recent memory.
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? I can't think of many lead nominations for the ladies. Winona Ryder for A SCANNER DARKLY would be cool, since she was like, a cartoon and everything.

Best Supporting Actress:
Who deserves to win? Abigrail Breslin, for LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, the cutie.
Who will win? Jennifer Hudson in DREAMGIRLS, which I have no problem with. The role was kind of one-dimensionally bitch, in my opinion, but she couldn't have played it better.
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? It's almost criminal that Clive Owen and Claire Hope-Ashitey were shut out in all the major American awards for CHILDREN OF MEN. She gave the Best Supporting Actress performance of the year in my eyes.

Best Supporting Actor:
Who deserves to win? Jack Nicholson, the Godfather of acting in this generation. This is my favorite of his performances, as blashphemous as that is. Out of the nominees, Jackie Earle Haley was the best, but no one saw LITTLE CHILDREN and the role is too extreme. He's lucky he got a nod in the first place.
Who will win? Eddie Murphy. Out of the nominees, I wouldn't have any problem. But c'mon, Mark Wahlberg as the only Oscar-nominated performance from THE DEPARTED is shameful. I'll be rooting for him.
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? Paul Dano or Steve Carell from LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE.

Best Cinematography:
Who deserves to win? Emmanuel Lubezki, CHILDREN OF MEN. In my opinion, the best cinematography I've ever seen.
Who will win? Lubezki.
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? Whoever's doing 300, since it's so badass it almost deserves to be nominated the year before it's actually released.

Best Original Screenplay:
Who deserves to win? Michael Arndt, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Who will win? Arndt.
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? THE FOUNTAIN, written by director Darren Aronofsky.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Who deserves to win? William Monahan, THE DEPARTED (A perfect script. Perfect. Hopefully I'm getting it, along with the DVD this weekend.)
Who will win? Monahan, if there is a God.
What would have been an awesome Dark Horse nomination? Whoever wrote CRANK. That was an awesome movie, to put it eloquently.

There's how it'll be (and how it should be).